Belgium feels safe, Germany looks big, France seems intimidating. Here is how to pick your first expansion market based on numbers instead of gut feeling.
For most Dutch and Western European DTC brands, the best first expansion market is Belgium or Germany. Belgium because the barrier to entry is lowest, Germany because the revenue opportunity is largest. France is the most underrated of the three, but it sets the highest bar for language and culture. Which one you should pick depends on five factors: market size, competition, logistics, language and margin. This article puts those factors next to all three markets, so you can decide based on your own numbers instead of gut feeling.
Which factors decide your first market?
Founders often pick their first international market on instinct. Germany because it is big, Belgium because it feels close. Neither reason is wrong, but both are incomplete. A market only matters if you can profitably convince strangers there: people who have never seen your brand and still buy. That requires looking at more than size alone.
- Market size: how many people can buy your product, and how mature is e-commerce there?
- Competition: how many brands are fighting for the same attention, and how strong are their creatives?
- Logistics: can you deliver fast and affordably, and handle returns without friction?
- Language: can you produce native creatives, or will you be running translated ads?
- Margin: after shipping, local payment methods and price pressure, is there enough left to scale?
None of these factors is decisive on its own. It is the combination that counts. A huge market with brutal competition can perform worse than a smaller market where your category still has room and nobody has claimed your angle yet.
Belgium: the lowest barrier
For Dutch brands, Flanders is almost a home market. The language is nearly identical, logistics are simple and your current creatives often work right away. That makes Belgium the perfect first test. You learn what international scaling means operationally, from shipping to customer service, without having to build an entirely new creative pipeline on day one.
The downside: Belgium is small and bilingual. Wallonia requires French creatives and a different tone of voice, so you run into the localization question anyway. Treat Belgium as a training ground, not a destination. A brand that only adds Belgium is mostly buying time. The real volume sits elsewhere.
Germany: the biggest prize
Germany is by far the largest of the three markets and, for most categories, the most important growth opportunity in Europe. It is also the market that punishes half-hearted work the hardest. German consumers want proof, clarity and trust: solid reviews, transparent return policies and payment methods they recognize. A literally translated ad immediately feels foreign, and foreign feels like risk.
Brands that take Germany seriously, with native creatives and a funnel that feels local, get rewarded with volume the Benelux can never match. For Buvanha, Germany was one of the six markets that took monthly revenue from €50K to €470K in three months, without a local team or office.
France: demanding but underrated
Many brands skip France because the language feels intimidating. That is exactly what makes it interesting: fewer foreign competitors, strong purchasing power and consumers who become loyal once you address them in proper French with the right tone. The bar is high. Stiff or literally translated copy gets spotted instantly, and French consumers rarely forgive it.
France is therefore rarely the best first market, but often a strong second or third. Once your system for native creatives is running, France is where that system pays for itself twice over, precisely because so few foreign brands make the effort.
Do not pick the market that feels closest. Pick the market where your brand can convince strangers fastest.
How do you decide in practice?
Start with your own data. Check Shopify and Meta for orders, site visits and engagement that already come from abroad without you targeting them. Organic pull is the strongest predictor of a promising market. Then check your unit economics per market: shipping costs, return behavior and payment methods decide whether the same ROAS is profitable there or not.
Be honest about your creative capacity too. Opening a market without native creatives is burning budget. Brands that produce natively per market consistently outperform brands that push one campaign through a translation tool. We produce creatives for clients in up to 10 languages, and the difference with translated work shows up in the results from day one.
Conclusion
There is no universally correct first market, only the correct first market for your brand. Belgium is the safe training ground, Germany the biggest prize for brands that commit, and France the underrated gem for brands with a strong creative system. We have helped 65+ brands scale across 18 countries, and we see every week which choices work and which do not. Not sure which market makes sense for you? Book a call and we will look at your numbers and your ambition together.